The UKs energy transition is in disarray. Offshore wind, the mainstay of the plan, will cost almost 3 times as much as expected. A review is urgently needed, and a possible change in direction.
I have seen the low costs for the Chinese hydrolysers, I also see comments stating that they don't meet western standards, and the efficiency and stack life is questionable.
Hydrolyser cost estimates rarely include and information about the scope, so we never know whether we are dealing with the hydrolyser itself or the complete plant. I suspect that hydrolyser costs may well come down, but the cost of the remainder of the plant will not come down to the same extent.
I think, if anything, I have underestimated the true cost of electricity. The 74% efficiency for the electrolysis plant is wishful thinking on the part of IEA, maybe they were looking only at the hydrolyser stack and did not include transmission, transformer and rectifier losses or the power use in the rest of the plant. I have not seen any hydrolyser manufacturers that quote more than 60% overall efficiency for their systems.
In any case, as you said in your article, it is quite clear that the cost of an all renewables system is many times higher than the UK government is trying to make us believe, and any attempts to convert to such a system should be abandoned,
Good analysis and more succinct than my own, but we came to similar conclusions.
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/lcoe-cost-wind-solar-renewables-plus-hydrogen
However, I was sent this the other day that suggests electrolyser costs are falling faster than we might think.
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/electrolysers/auction-results-reveal-that-chinese-hydrogen-electrolysers-are-two-to-five-times-cheaper-to-buy-than-western-machines/2-1-1570717
I have seen the low costs for the Chinese hydrolysers, I also see comments stating that they don't meet western standards, and the efficiency and stack life is questionable.
Hydrolyser cost estimates rarely include and information about the scope, so we never know whether we are dealing with the hydrolyser itself or the complete plant. I suspect that hydrolyser costs may well come down, but the cost of the remainder of the plant will not come down to the same extent.
I think, if anything, I have underestimated the true cost of electricity. The 74% efficiency for the electrolysis plant is wishful thinking on the part of IEA, maybe they were looking only at the hydrolyser stack and did not include transmission, transformer and rectifier losses or the power use in the rest of the plant. I have not seen any hydrolyser manufacturers that quote more than 60% overall efficiency for their systems.
In any case, as you said in your article, it is quite clear that the cost of an all renewables system is many times higher than the UK government is trying to make us believe, and any attempts to convert to such a system should be abandoned,